We monitor the number of mortgagee listings on TradeMe and realestate.co.nz each Monday morning, and have noticed a sharp decline in them during December. Normally, the low point in the year occurs at the end of February. Terralink publish data on the actual number of mortgagee sales but this data lags considerably - the latest is for June 2012.
However because the data from our records and Terralink’s goes back many years, we can correlate it reasonably well and this enables us to estimate the Terralink series through the end of December 2012. And that confirms the listing trend.
Mortgagee stress is evaporating in our housing markets. We expect the number of houses sold as mortgagee sales in December to be about 100 and this will be the lowest in more than four years, since mid 2008. We expect this level to keep declining until February.